|

As
We See It, the Current Equity Outlook ... First
Quarter 2007
First quarter 2007
equity market performance was volatile in the face of an uncertain economic
backdrop and an unfolding crisis in the US housing market. The interest rate
outlook has become blurry in light of conflicting signals from the economy.
Markets around the world were spooked by an air pocket in Chinese equity prices
and pulled back sharply in late February, but rebounded nicely in March. Bottom
line: the S&P 500 was up a modest 0.7% for the quarter.
Portfolio
out-performers in the quarter included many of our international stocks, and an
assortment of technology and business service stocks. For example, shares of
Plantronics benefited from growing awareness of its Bluetooth products in the
marketplace, a hopeful sign that the company’s new strategy is bearing fruit.
We expect accelerating profit growth over the next year.
The healthcare
sector, normally thought to be defensive, was generally an underperformer as
regulators and politicians in Washington continue to focus on this part of the
federal budget. Although some stocks performed well, we have been surprised by
the sector’s loss of its defensive characteristics over the last nine months.
Given our penchant for life-sciences and healthcare stocks, particularly those
that leverage proprietary technology, we are watching this development very
closely.
During March,
Boston Scientific's core market, drug eluting stents (DES) was caught in a
firestorm of controversy based on the results of a clinical study comparing the
therapy to alternatives. Our checks with industry sources tell us that usage of
BSX's products will resume their growth trajectories when the data from these
studies is absorbed and better understood by practitioners. In addition, the
recent lifting of the FDA's prohibition of new product releases in the company's
cardiac rhythm management business (pacemakers and implantable defibrillators)
should drive growth in the second half of the year.
Generally, we are
cautious on the economy’s and market’s outlook, but remain constructive on
our portfolio names and the strength of the individual franchises. Earnings
growth for the S&P 500 is forecast to be around 7% in 2007, compared to a
mid teens average for the portfolio. In many cases we feel the estimated growth
rates are conservative, and have confidence that your portfolio will perform
well.
Outsourcing and SGS SA
Globalization has resulted
in many things; the mix of technology and economic integration has transformed
the world, and created unparalleled prosperity. Barriers to the free flow of
goods and services, labor and capital continue to be pulled down
around
the world, aided
by huge improvements in communications and transport. As a result, in the past
five years, the world has seen faster growth than at any time since the early
1970s.
A major trend
resulting, or perhaps more accurately enhancing, the globalization trend has
been outsourcing. While much has been written about the cost savings generated
by moving production and customer service operations to countries with lower
labor costs, there are several other significant benefits. Management is better
able to focus on the company’s core competencies when non-core operations are
delegated to an outside contractor. Outsourcers can more rapidly and efficiently
dedicate a number of employees according to clients’ needs without affecting
profitability and quality of service. As a result, they can also manage
seasonality much more efficiently.
A recent addition to our
international portfolios is Geneva-based SGS SA, which is a beneficiary of the
growth in outsourcing. The company, previously known as Societe Generale de
Surveillance, is the global market leader in verification, testing, inspection
and certification. Testing services in particular, an SGS strength, are being
outsourced at a growing rate as specialized companies can provide reliable,
high-quality services at lower cost. In addition, the growth in outsourcing and
global sourcing in general has increased the emphasis on the monitoring of
process quality, which has to be developed, implemented and checked for
compliance. With so much manufacturing moving to developing countries, quality
control is critical.
Relatively high
barriers to entry, such as the complex technical skills and equipment, service
quality, and global network required to service a multinational client base
support SGS’s dominant position. A large portion of SGS’s revenue is
generated from recurring contracts as customer loyalty is high; it is expensive
and time consuming to change from one company to another.
With the
continuing attractiveness of outsourcing, along with increasing regulation,
safety and performance standards, increasingly complex products and shortening
product lifecycles, we believe that SGS will be able to maintain a high organic
growth rate going forward.
Noteworthy
Developments
Johnston Asset
Management reached a major milestone when we passed through $1 billion in assets
under management in December, 2006. Our clients have enabled us to reach this
milestone, and we cannot adequately express our gratitude for their trust and
confidence in us over the years. In another significant development, Joan
Giannotti and Cassandra Hardman have agreed to become partners in Johnston Asset
Management. Their participation in the firm will ensure that we continue to work
together as a team for years to come.

|