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As
We See It ...
Second Quarter 2008
Our last two
letters dealt with the uncertainty of the economic environment, and six months
down the road things have not become much clearer. We have a bit more
information, but nothing that has not been obvious to most observers.
First, we are
officially in a bear market. As of this writing the S&P 500 is down more
than 20% from the October highs. The financial crisis is not curing itself, and
the contagion has spread as far as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the for profit
yet congressionally chartered clearing houses of mortgage debt. Offsetting our
concerns about these developments, however, is the fact that financial
institutions have had access to the capital markets, albeit at higher rates.
They have been able to issue debt and preferred stock, and every offering we
have seen has been oversubscribed, speaking to the continued appetite of
professional investors for high quality income producing securities.
Second, inflation is no longer a
secondary concern, but has been brought right to the front of our consciousness
by the parabolic trajectory of energy prices and the floods in the Midwest that
ruined crops and disrupted transportation networks for weeks if not months.
These are unquestionably inflationary shocks. Producers of goods and services
cannot absorb the related decrease in their profit margins indefinitely.
Eventually they will seek to pass these price increases on to the consumer. On
the other hand, consumers will treat the increase in prices they pay for direct
energy consumption (gasoline, electricity, and fuel oil, for example) as they
would a tax increase, and simply reduce their discretionary spending to fill the
void. This will have a deflationary effect as demand decreases.
Where then does
one invest? Look for companies that have underlying recession resistant secular
growth and a degree of pricing power. Healthcare supply companies generally fit
this category, as do some areas of the information technology sector. For
example, banks, retailers, and governments will continue to gather data, and
will need to store that valuable digital intelligence somewhere. We believe that
bodes well for EMC and NetApp’s ability to grow even in a slowdown. We also
check to make sure that management teams of all of our portfolio companies are
experienced enough to husband resources in a slowdown without sacrificing
investment in future growth opportunities. Finally, if things do turn south,
high price/earnings multiples are usually not rewarded, so we maintain our
discipline of adding new companies to the portfolios only when the downside risk
is low.
We are generally comfortable with
the portfolio’s position and its ability to weather a further downturn in the
market. Performance in the quarter outpaced the relevant indices, but that only
meant we fell less. Nonetheless, we welcome your questions and comments, and
hope you enjoy the rest of your summer.
ADR's...
American
Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are negotiable US securities that represent a non-US
company’s publicly traded equity. They are denominated in US dollars and trade
on US exchanges, so they can be an easy and efficient way for US investors to
put money to work internationally.
While ADR-only
mandates have attractive characteristics, they also have a number of drawbacks.
The ADR universe includes only a portion of the non-US universe of securities.
While many large non-US companies have an ADR, some well-known global companies
such as Samsung Electronics, do not. In addition, many interesting mid- to
large-cap growth companies do not trade as ADRs. Examples include Hyflux
(Singapore), Kurita Water (Japan), and Solon (Germany).
Based on the performance of the
Bank of New York (BNY) Developed Market ADR index relative to that of the MSCI
EAFE index, the limitations of the ADR-only universe have been a negative. Over
its eight year history, the ADR index underperformed EAFE in six years, and
lagged by more than 100 basis points on an annualized basis over three-, five-
and eight-year periods.
Another concern is that the ADR
universe peaked in 2001 and has been shrinking ever since. In contrast, London,
where there are fewer regulatory requirements such as Sarbanes-Oxley, is
becoming the exchange of choice for depositary receipts. This trend is expected
to continue.
Johnston Asset Management has been
running fully-discretionary portfolios (which can hold both ordinary shares and
ADRs) for more than five years. Initially, there was significant overlap between
the holdings and performance, but more recently, a number of stocks without an
ADR facility have made it through the intense scrutiny inherent in our
investment process, and have become positions in our fully-discretionary
portfolios. As of 12/31/07, our fully-discretionary portfolios have outperformed
our ADR-only portfolios over the one-, three- and five-year periods on an
annualized basis.
There is no guarantee that this
outperformance will continue, but we believe that over the long term, it is best
for clients to be invested in portfolios that have the flexibility to access all
attractive investment opportunities in the non-US universe. Such a large portion
of the investment universe is excluded from possible inclusion in ADR-only
portfolios that over time, a significant number of attractive investment
opportunities are likely to be missed.
************ New Vehicles for International ************
We have created three new vehicles
to make it easier to invest with us in our International product. Two are LPs
for individuals and Foundations & Endowments; the third is a Group Trust for
ERISA accounts. They offer monthly liquidity and modest minimums, as well as
greater access to ordinary shares and the opportunity for defensive hedging.

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